World cup redux

less than 1 minute read

Now that the group stages are over, here are the probabilities that the remaining teams will win the world cup:

Team Probability of winning the world cup
New Zealand 0.428
South Africa 0.206
England 0.165
Wales 0.082
Ireland 0.057
Australia 0.038
France 0.022
Japan 0.001

This uses the same model as in my previous post. I’m quite sure that I am underrating Japan by not allowing form to vary! Otherwise, the results aren’t wildly different to my predictions before the group stages.